Several weeks ago I did some number crunching trying to decide how many referals would come in August and September (right before courts reopen) and posted it at about 2 in the morning on the CHSFS forum. The next morning the entire thread had been deleted... censored I believe for being overly optimistic. It kind of set me back a little bit to be slapped on the wrist so to speak but I have been thinking about it alot. It is a bit frustrating because other agencies let you know where you are on thier waiting list and will estimate for you how long the wait may be but with our agency it is a big secret. While I understand that some people may get upset as children are matched with couples who turned in their dossier after them but give us a break and treat us like adults.....the wait is harder when you don't know what is happening. I have trouble just going on with everyday life with this big unknown (Type A personality I guess... I like to think of it as God's gift of perserverance). For me I like to know up to date info all the time. I am a checker and rechecker. So this uncertainty leaves us waiting moms to create our own "unofficial list" where waiting families volunteer their information for the sake of all of us crazy obsessed people who just want to know when to expect thier miracle. We use this list to estimate and calculate so that we can have some semblence of a plan for our future. Some fellow forum watching, calculators have asked me to post what I found from my number crunching here without the threat of being censored again:
NOTE: This is only an estimate from looking at the history from the unofficial list (which is of course incomplete data). The following estimate may be way off base as far as how many referals will actually come (please don't plan your life around it...or hate me later if I am completely wrong).
2006 month 2007
13 April 23
7 May 14
6 June 9
10 after June 15 cut off 26
There has been a 195% average increase in referals between 2006 & 2007
In August/September 2006- 16 people from the list recieved referrals so this computes to a possibility of 31 people recieving a referral by the end of September

However, someone reported that a CHS social worker said that there would be 30 referals a month and if about half of all CHS adoptive families participate in the unofficial list then there are likely going to be 15 from the list by the end of September.

I have also read numerous posts saying that our agency can get 10 children through courts a week. This would mean 40 referals... I am assuming that the 30 referrals mentioned earlier are referring to the actual number of referals for infants given and the remaining ten of the 40 for the month are reserved for older Waiting children.

So my best estimate is that anywhere from 15-30 referrals will be recieved by unofficial list people by the end of September (I am going to guess 20).

So my original calulations may be very liberal while CHS likes to be very conservative (they don't want to disappoint anyone)... it would be nice if the agency would open up to us and let us in on the up-to-date info so we are not making ourselves crazy estimating and guessing.

Note: We are currently 26th on the unofficial list. Since we are looking for a little girl up to 2 1/2 we could get a referral right at the beginning but I believe we will have our referral by mid October (more likely an infant if in Oct).